1. Hyped Plays – Highly Publicized (e.g., CZ’s Dog)
These are the launches everyone sees coming. The best snipers in the game are prepped, liquidity is dense but ruthless, and execution is a bloodbath. To win big, you need either:
1) Elite domain experience, skill, and execution to compete, OR
2) Patience, capital, and conviction to buy dips when most get shaken out.
Most traders underestimate how tough these plays are. The hype attracts both retail and top-tier operators, making it a zero-sum game where weaker hands get rinsed fast.
2. Repeat Plays – Weaker Derivatives (e.g., Post-Trump: Melania -> Car -> Libra)
These are copycat plays, each iteration weaker than the last. Liquidity drops, PTSD rises, and insiders get sharper – improving their execution, speeding up extraction, and becoming greedier with each cycle.
– The first launch catches people off guard, creating the biggest opportunity.
– Every repetition puts “history” in people’s minds, capping upside and setting psychological ceilings.
– Traders feel like they undersized the first time, so they size up to compensate – ignoring the fact that risk is now exponentially higher.
Greed and tilt take over. They’re chasing what they “missed” before, not realising they’re walking into a sharper, faster, more predatory game. Free money only exists in the initial, unexpected plays – when no one realizes what’s possible yet. Once a pattern is established, it’s just a table where the fish get eaten faster.
“If you sit down at a poker table and can’t spot the sucker, you are the sucker.”
You can’t catch them all. And you don’t need to.
The goal isn’t to force yourself into every trade – it’s to hone in on the spots where you actually have an edge.
– If you don’t have the execution speed for a sniper play, forcing entries will just bleed you.
– If you don’t understand the psychology behind a move, you’re gambling, not trading.
– If you can’t confidently explain why you have an edge, you probably don’t have one.
Most mistakes come from feeling like you need to be in every play. The reality? Patience and selective aggression win.
Good traders don’t try to win every hand. They wait for the setups where they know they have an edge – and when they find it, they press hard.
