The last two weeks have been marked by a cold snap in Europe and North America. That is why it is now possible to draw conclusions as to whether the collective West will survive the winter. And yes, it will.
The warm autumn played into Europe’s hands in many ways. In fact, countries did not switch to winter power supply until mid-November. All that time they were accumulating gas, signing contracts and building infrastructure. The dynamics of gas accumulation in Europe turned out to be much better than similar periods in 2017-2021.
Strange as it may seem, the coming recession is helping to get out of the energy crisis. The Fed and the ECB are raising interest rates, thereby making life more difficult for companies. They are cutting their staff and production because they no longer need so much energy.
In addition, France is restarting nuclear power plants in 2023, the second LNG terminal in the US, Freeport LNG, will be back in operation in January and Germany will have as many as two LNG terminals online by the end of the year. All of this is pushing energy prices down.
You could talk about China, which is still the biggest consumer of energy. But there are two things – Beijing has ramped up coal production, while imposing lockdowns across the country. So there is even a surplus of energy in the country.
Perhaps the abnormally cold weather could reverse the trend and rekindle the flames of the energy crisis. But with the abnormally hot summer we had this year, the chance of cold weather is minimal.