Real alpha callers will tell you that 80% of people are just copying calls from other alphas and are actually working on short-term pumps and dumps . This is not really “alpha” information.
Alpha-call is not a prediction, but a valuation of the next project or token according to different aggregates, which we will discuss in detail later in this thread.
The first thing to consider when making a call is the environment in which we develop. Calls during a bear market and during a bull market should not be the same, even if the project is the same.
Call base:
- Entry Price
- Estimate exit price range
- Length of hold.
Most alpha callers don’t do this, and this is where you’ll see a big difference between good callers and copy traders.
A reasonable call will be met when the exit target is reached at the time specified by the counterpart.
Take into account the liquidity of the market
Indeed, the last few months have been pretty tough for crypto and NFT, even very good projects have not been able to sell into the plus side and other sources have had to be used to make a profit.
Consider your liquidity
If we have very high volume in the market, but only a few unique NFTs, compared to if we have little liquidity, but exponential growth in the number of people entering the market.
FOMO should be taken into account, not reasoning if the number of people is present but the volume is not. Conversely, we can play with quantity deals, also known as whales, if we ever have fewer people but are willing to invest more.
To illustrate this example, we play degen, in case there is not enough liquidity in the market, but there are people: this is perfect for creating a hype and flip, despite the general lack of volume.
On the other hand, if the market recovers liquidity, we may see massive moves of collections between people who have a large bank.
Understanding market sentiment
Playing with the emotions of other traders in the space and other things create a very large amount of subjectivity about the volatility and volume that a project can generate.
Regularity of communication
Attending twitter spaces (AMAs with developers), dig deeper into the project: trying to understand and get a feel for what the market and the NFT community think about a particular project is key to predicting how the project will perform financially. Don’t forget to learn English.
Discord and proper alpha chat
We often hear a project get a lot of turnover on Twitter and a lot of influential people talk about it, but trust me, there’s a big gap between what happens on Twitter and the value invested in the project, so it’s always interesting to talk about it with other people to have a critical opinion and also with people who are willing to invest in the project in question, and this usually happens more in discord than on Twitter
Know when to come out
One very important thing is the importance of making a profit and not holding on too long to a project that you were planning to profit from, such as BAYC land, MAVIA, etc.
Make a post-evaluation of the call
It is very important to always do an analysis: – before – during – after the call. Evaluation is often neglected, although it is certainly important.
After a successful call, understand why the call worked or not, understand when the momentum occurred, whether the project evolved over time or only pamp and dump, or technical analysis was successful.
Know when to invest and find your trading style: Don’t throw your entire bank at the first call you see, try to understand why the call was made and how to capitalize on the information you received to trade effectively.
Alpha-call is not an instant BUY – it is a great informational benefit. It exists to help you understand the project: a caller who will only say, “Buy the project at N and sell it at N.”
Manage your time according to your trading style
If you don’t have time to actually spend time in the market, understand and analyze every call offered to you, or even yourself as a collier, don’t have time to keep track of all the projects that come to market.
Diversify your portfolio
It’s important to know how to trade on any type of support, whether NFT or tokens, as well as a different holding time horizon.
Set a stop loss
Some projects take a phenomenal rush for a very short period of time. In a case where you hit FOMO, the right thing to do would be to sell at a loss.
Use of tools
We are fortunate to have many tools available today to help us analyze project trends. The most popular is nftnerds.
But it is not suitable for beginners because of the price and the functionality you need to know how to use.
– Free: https://www.flips.finance/
– Free: https://nftinit.com/
– Free: https://degenmint.xyz/
– Free: https://nftflip.ai/
– Free: https://curio.tools/
– Free: https://blockprobe.io/
– Free: https://nftgo.io/
– Free: https://www.nfteye.io/
– Free: https://nftvaluations.com/
Always consider royalties and gas
Many people forget the impact of royalties, if you ever take a call at 0.05 E and sell at 0.1 E with a 10% royalty + 2% OpenSea, you won’t earn 0.05, but 0.044 + gas.
This seems obvious, but I assure you that too few people take this into consideration when they trade.
Additional advice: be gentle with yourself and instead of pointing out a bad call, try to understand why it didn’t work.
Downplaying your mistakes
It’s also very important to learn from your trades. We need to learn in an ecosystem where everything is still ahead of us, and that’s okay.
