Let’s start with a little chronology:
– Elections, euphoria, Binance listings GOAT, PNUT, MOODENG and even ACT which rises as much as 20X. SOL breaks the range and reach 2024 ATH.
– We see exhaustion – Bitcoin goes for a healthy correction from 100k, memes fall harder as they have nothing to lean on temporarily: there is no new strong meta after the election, the meta of AI agents has exhausted.
– Pump.science seemed to give hope, but they ruin themselves twice with the hacking of their API and interest quickly faded.
– The streams on pump.fun go into a hard shit and it cools down the healthy part of the community, a lot are disappointed.
– Liquidity comes to classic altcoins, including very old coins like XRP, EOS. (this might make sense, if you made 50 million on memes and want to make 500 of them, you are unlikely to be able to do that on memes now, as if it would be more profitable to overflow into the broad alt market at the bottom).
– CZ makes a X post about how memes are cool, but they have no utility and it would be nice to bring back the good old days with utility tokens.
– Binance stop listsing memes from BSC and Solana.
– Solana total trading volume got top volume on the 10th to the 21st of November and then declines. However, it is still twice as high as it was in March, when the memes were flying very high. In other networks, volumes also fall, but in th ETH ecosystem, for example, not so much, and on the contrary, ETH has shown growth.
What I and other traders see in Solana:
– Bots chase the deposit around the same amount, retail traders are cautious, a little growth of the coin, immediately go out.
– Those who trade migration or pump.fun complain about a series of negative trades and take a timeout.
– Those who were waiting for memes to be listed on tier-1 exchanges are no longer excited about a possible listing on futures and are not waiting for spot at all.
What’s next:
– I don’t think it’s a big deal, memes need a breather, maybe as long as the meme season itself (i.e. 1 month), maybe less.
– Memes are stronger than fresh VC coins, but old, forgotten VC coins that have been sitting around for over a year can shoot up stronger than fresh memes.
– In the long term, the market is bullish, distribution is out of the question for now.
– At the moment, memes may lose interest.
– As long as the market is bullish, interest in memes will return.
– There are more and more bots in memes, a significant part of retail is trading bots.
What a new meta can be?
– Bonding curve mechanics + streams – very strong narrative, I haven’t seen interesting coins where the behaviour of the coin is somehow interactively embedded in the physical world.
– AI – there will be another wave of growth, just a matter of time.
– Situational memes, social or political memes – not going anywhere.
– DeSci – not fully revealed yet
– Memes based on statements, projects and actions of personalities will happen as before.
